With the housing crash of 2006-2008 still visible in the rear-view mirror, many are concerned the current correction in the stock market is a sign that home values are also about to tumble. What’s taking place today, however, is nothing like what happened the last time. The S&P 500 did fall by over fifty percent from October 2007 to March 2009, and home values did depreciate in 2007, 2008, and 2009 – but that was because that economic slowdown was mainly caused by a collapsing real estate market and a meltdown in the mortgage market.
I just pulled the latest statistic that compares the listing price of a home to the actual sales price. For Sedona single-family homes we are at 97.5%. Only 2.5% of list price is being given up. For prime Sedona homes, the market is moving very fast. They have to be priced right and in very good condition. We heard through the grapevine yesterday that a home came on the market this week and had 5 offers in two hours. The market appears to be shifting. It usually is busy this time of year but this year seems to be busier than any other we’ve had here for home sales.
According to a recent survey conducted by Genworth Financial Inc. at the Annual Mortgage Bankers’ Association Secondary Market Conference, 69% of mortgage professionals say that first-time buyers still believe a 20% down payment is necessary to buy in today’s market.
Nearly 40% of mortgage industry professionals surveyed believe that a lack of knowledge about the home-buying process is keeping potential buyers on the sidelines. Saving for a down payment is often cited as a huge barrier for first-time homebuyers to make the leap into homeownership.
- After a surge in March, existing home sales and new home sales slowed due to a drop in inventory available for sale in the start-up and trade-up categories.
- Median existing home prices surged for the 62nd straight month, up 6.0% over last year to $244,800.
- New home prices slowed as builders have started to turn their focus toward single family, smaller homes.
As we head into summer, it is a great time to review how the 2017 real estate market is doing so far. Here is what the experts are saying:
“Positive demographic factors should continue to reshape the housing market, as rising employment and incomes appear to be positively influencing millennial homeownership rates.”
“Even as more homes come on the market for this traditionally popular sales season, they’re flying off fast, with bidding wars par for the course. Home prices have now surpassed their last peak, and at the entry level, where demand is highest, sellers are firmly in the driver’s seat.”
According to the latest report from the US Census Bureau, more Americans chose purchasing a home over signing a lease to rent in the first quarter of 2017. This marks the first time since 2006 that the number of new homeowner households outpaced the number of new renter households.
Of the 1.22 million new households that were formed in the first quarter, 854,000 were new-owner households making the jump straight to homeownership rather than renting first.
That means that the homeownership rate amongst new households was 70%!
This is huge news as the national homeownership rate is currently 63.6% and has only ever come close to this figure in the second quarter of 2004 when the homeownership rate reached an all-time high of 69.2%.
People often ask if now is a good time to buy a home, but nobody ever asks when a good time to rent is. Regardless, we want to make certain that everyone understands that today is NOT a good time to rent.
The Census Bureau recently released their 2017 first quarter median rent numbers. Here is a graph showing rent increases from 1988 until today:
As you can see, rents have steadily increased and are showing no signs of slowing down. If you are faced with making the decision of whether or not you should renew your lease, you might be pleasantly surprised at your ability to buy a home of your own instead.
Whether you are buying or selling a home it can be quite an adventurous journey, which is why you need an experienced real estate professional to guide you on the path to your ultimate goal. In this world of instant gratification and internet searches, many sellers think that they can For Sale by Owner or FSBO.
The 5 reasons you NEED a real estate professional in your corner haven’t changed, but have rather been strengthened by the projections of higher mortgage interest rates & home prices as the market continues to pick up steam.
- In a recent Harris Poll, Americans listed “change in climate/weather” as their top reason for wanting to relocate.
- 41% would move for a “better job opportunity.”
- Being closer to loved ones filled out 3 of the top 6 reasons why Americans move.
The biggest challenge to today’s housing market is the shortage of housing inventory for sale. A normal market would see a six-month supply of homes for sale. Currently, that number is below four months. This is the major reason home prices have continued to appreciate at higher levels than historic averages.
The good news is that builders are now starting to build more homes in lower price ranges.
Builder Confidence is Up
The Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reveals that builder confidence increased last month. HousingWire quoted NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz about the reason for the increase in confidence amongst builders.
One of the many benefits of owning your own home is the freedom to find your ‘furever’ friend. By pointing out the aspects of your home that make it ‘pet-friendly’ in your listing, you’ll attract these buyers rather than alienate the 61% of American households that have a pet!
If you are one of the many homeowners looking to list your home for sale, how do you stand out to the millions of pet parents searching for their dream homes?
Whether a dog person, a cat person, or someone who prefers the company of another pet species, 99% of pet owners say that they consider their animal to be family. When finding a home, 95% of animal owners believe it is important that a housing community allows animals.
I’m a graph nerd. I think graphs can take data and make it quickly understandable. This graph, which I pulled today of the Sedona single family home absorption rate, is a great example.
Like many places, Sedona was hit during the recession. It looks like we are starting to make a strong recovery though. For the past year we’ve had a steady drop in the average market time of homes. At a 6 month absorption rate, we’ve moved from a buyers market to a neutral market.
Another year gone, so let’s look at the statistics.
I ran the stats for 2015 against the closed out 2016 year end stats.
These stats are for ‘residential single family homes’, or homes that are not manufactured homes, mobile homes, condos or town homes but stand alone homes.
408 homes sold
227 Days on market
$527,515 Average sales price
94% List to Sold Price
424 homes sold
205 Days on market
$564,361 Average sales price
94% List to Sold Price
So we had about 6.5% in appreciation . That’s down from the 2014-2015 year range. We shifted from a buyers market with days on market over 200 days to a neutral market. We did see sales slow quite a bit in the fall leading up to the elections. We’ve seen that before in this and other markets regardless of who is running for office. December was busy though and we made up a lot of ground. That’s likely to show up in the 2017 stats for closings.